Global Commodity Prices Set to Climb Amid Middle East Conflict
In its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank projected that commodity prices would subsequently decline by 7% in 2027 and 8.8% in 2028 as supply pressures gradually diminish.
Energy prices are forecast to increase 32% this year before dropping 11.5% in 2027. The latest estimates represent upward revisions of 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027 compared with the bank’s April forecasts.
Global oil production is projected to contract by 5.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 5.2%, in 2026. Excluding the pandemic-driven recession in 2020, this would mark the steepest annual supply decline in more than 40 years.
Brent crude is expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 in 2025. Prices are then forecast to ease to $79 per barrel in 2027 and $70 in 2028.
The combination of rising costs and limited availability is expected to reduce global oil consumption by 2.5%, or 2.6 million barrels per day, in 2026. This would represent the third-largest annual decline on record, following those recorded in 2020 and 1980.
European natural gas prices are projected to jump 58.3% this year to $19 per million British thermal units, amid reduced liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices are subsequently expected to fall 7.9% in 2027.
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